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Title: Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?
Authors: Eduardo Loria 
Luis Brito Cruz 
Keywords: Economía y Finanzas;leading indicator;consumer confidence index;Granger causality test;unit root;structural change;co-integration;info:eu-repo/classification/cti/5
Publisher: Asociación Internacional de Economía Aplicada
Description: The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good 'predictor' of the U.S.'s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine -in the Granger sense- either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI.
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Rights: info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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