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|Title:||Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?||Authors:||Eduardo Loria
Luis Brito Cruz
|Keywords:||Economía y Finanzas;leading indicator;consumer confidence index;Granger causality test;unit root;structural change;co-integration;info:eu-repo/classification/cti/5||Publisher:||Asociación Internacional de Economía Aplicada||Project:||http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=301||Description:||The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good 'predictor' of the U.S.'s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine -in the Granger sense- either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI.||URI:||http://ri.uaemex.mx/handle20.500.11799/38880||Other Identifiers:||http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11799/38880||Rights:||info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
|Appears in Collections:||Producción|
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