Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ri.uaemex.mx/handle20.500.11799/38880

Title:	Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?
Keywords:	Economía y Finanzas;leading indicator;consumer confidence index;Granger causality test;unit root;structural change;co-integration;info:eu-repo/classification/cti/5
Publisher:	Asociación Internacional de Economía Aplicada
Project:	http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=301
Description:	The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good 'predictor' of the U.S.'s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine -in the Granger sense- either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI.
Other Identifiers:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11799/38880
Rights:	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
Appears in Collections:	Producción

Check

DSpace CRIS