Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?

Loria, Eduardo;#0000-0002-1597-3847; Brito Cruz, Luis; 371242

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dc.contributor.author	Loria, Eduardo;#0000-0002-1597-3847
dc.contributor.author	Brito Cruz, Luis; 371242
dc.creator	Loria, Eduardo;#0000-0002-1597-3847
dc.creator	Brito Cruz, Luis; 371242
dc.date.accessioned	2016-03-16T17:16:13Z
dc.date.available	2016-03-16T17:16:13Z
dc.date.issued	2004
dc.identifier	http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=30122317
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11799/38880
dc.description.abstract	The United States (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has been widely and unambiguously regarded as a good 'predictor' of the U.S.'s private investment and consumption. In order to demonstrate such with statistical rigor, co-integration and Granger causality tests were applied for 1978:Q1-2003:Q1. Two crucial results were obtained: a) co-integration was not found between CCI and investment and consumption, and b) CCI does not determine -in the Granger sense- either consumption or private investment. Conversely, we found causality from these two variables over CCI.	es
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.language.iso	eng	es
dc.publisher	Asociación Internacional de Economía Aplicada
dc.relation	http://www.redalyc.org/revista.oa?id=301
dc.rights	openAccess
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
dc.source	Estudios de Economía Aplicada (España) Num.3 Vol.22
dc.subject	Economía y Finanzas	es
dc.subject	leading indicator	es
dc.subject	consumer confidence index	es
dc.subject	Granger causality test	es
dc.subject	unit root	es
dc.subject	structural change	es
dc.subject	co-integration	es
dc.subject.classification	CIENCIAS SOCIALES
dc.title	Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?	es
dc.type	Artículo
dc.provenance	Científica
dc.road	Dorada
dc.ambito	Internacional	es
dc.audience	students
dc.audience	researchers
dc.type.conacyt	article
dc.identificator	5

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Título
Is the consumer confidence index a sound predictor of the private demand in the United States?
Autor
Loria, Eduardo;#0000-0002-1597-3847
Brito Cruz, Luis; 371242
Fecha de publicación
2004
Editor
Asociación Internacional de Economía Aplicada
Tipo de documento
Artículo
Palabras clave
Economía y Finanzas
leading indicator
consumer confidence index
Granger causality test
unit root
structural change
co-integration